Most recent signal: Aug 7, 2026
SPX ≥ 12% Through First 150 Days of Year
12M avg +9.7% | 12M hit rate 75% | n=22
Forward return profile for S&P 500 when it advances at least 12% through the first 150 sessions of the year
Backtests: Visualized
Interactive market studies | No narratives, just numbers
Most recent signal: Jul 14, 2026
SPX 200DMA Rises for 300 Consecutive Days
12M avg +2.5% | 12M hit rate 50% | n=15
Forward return profile for S&P 500 when its 200-day moving average rises for 300 consecutive days (once per uptrend)
Most recent signal: Jul 10, 2026
SPX 70-Day Streak RSI > 40 + 4% Drawdown
12M avg +12.9% | 12M hit rate 85% | n=14
Forward return profile for S&P 500 when RSI stays above 40 for consecutive days and the index experiences a 4% or greater in-window drawdown
Most recent signal: Jul 10, 2026
SPX After VIX Fresh 120-Session Low < 16
12M avg +10.0% | 12M hit rate 83% | n=39
Forward return profile for S&P 500 when VIX makes a 120-session low for the first time in 30 days and that low is below 16.0
Most recent signal: Jun 29, 2026
Large Value Rallies 15% in 3 Months
12M avg +14.6% | 12M hit rate 92% | n=14
Forward return profile for VONV when rolling 63-day change exceeds 15%
Most recent signal: Jun 18, 2026
SPX After DXY Hits a 52-week High
12M avg +7.7% | 12M hit rate 75% | n=17
Forward return profile for S&P 500 when US dollar makes a new 52-week high for the first time in a year.
Most recent signal: Jun 5, 2026
Gold Closes < 200SMA After ≥ 500 Days Above It
12M avg +31.6% | 12M hit rate 67% | n=4
Forward return profile when XAUUSD closes below its 200-day moving after having closed above it for at least 500 days.
Most recent signal: Jun 5, 2026
SPX RSI Goes From Overbought to < 50 in 3 Days
12M avg +13.7% | 12M hit rate 87% | n=33
Forward return profile when SPX RSI goes from > 70 to < 50 in 3 days or less.
Most recent signal: May 26, 2026
S&P 500 Rolling 2-month Change Exceeds 16%
12M avg +15.6% | 12M hit rate 85% | n=29
Forward return profile when SPX rolling 2-month return crosses above 16%.
Most recent signal: May 22, 2026
S&P 500 Rises 8 Straight Weeks
12M avg +10.1% | 12M hit rate 89% | n=20
Forward return profile when SPX closes higher for at least 8 consecutive weeks.
Most recent signal: May 18, 2026
RSPD/RSPS Drawdown > 15% While S&P 500 < 5%
12M avg +7.7% | 12M hit rate 75% | n=13
Forward return profile when SPX is near highs while RSPD/RSPS is in a 15% drawdown.
Most recent signal: May 15, 2026
S&P 500 Overbought Streak
12M avg +10.4% | 12M hit rate 74% | n=44
Forward return profile when SPX is overbought for an extended period.
Most recent signal: May 14, 2026
S&P 500 Goes From 6% Below its 50DMA to 8% Above It
12M avg +20.1% | 12M hit rate 89% | n=10
Forward return profile when SPX closes 8% above it 50DMA within 32 days of being 6% below it.
Most recent signal: May 8, 2026
NDX Stretched Above Its 50-Day Moving Average
12M avg +16.6% | 12M hit rate 73% | n=16
Forward return profile when NDX trades 14% above its 50-day moving average.
Most recent signal: Apr 10, 2026
Nasdaq-100 Rolling YoY% Crosses > +1 Std
12M avg +16.2% | 12M hit rate 86% | n=8
Forward return profile when NDX YoY returns exceeds +1 Std for the first time in a year.